Independent UK Economic Forecasting Since 1977

Established in 1977, the ITEM Club is one of the UK’s leading forecast groups. It is the only private forecasting group to use HM Treasury’s model of the UK economy and operates independently of political or economic bias.

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Why organizations trust us

Unparalleled expertise and independence in UK economic forecasting

Established 1977

Nearly five decades providing trusted insights to decision-makers across government and industry sectors.

HM Treasury Model

Only private forecaster with access to the UK government's official economic model for unmatched accuracy.

100% Independent

Completely free from political influence. Forecasts and reports driven purely by rigorous analysis on the economic data.

Recent Reports

Explore our comprehensive library of quarterly forecasts and in-depth thematic publications

July 2026

Summer forecast 2026: Middle East flare up could lead to a challenging H2

So far the UK economy has shown few signs of the conflict in the Middle East. But the ITEM Club expects the challenges to start to mount in the second half of 2026 as consumers' real incomes are squeezed. Growth is forecast to be 0.9% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027.

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Weak regional growth as government signals support for rebalancing

UK regional growth will remain modest in 2026–2030, and weak by historical standards. The North West is among the fastest-growing regions, with average growth of 1.5% per year between 2026 and 2030, though still below its recent and pre-Covid-19 pace. Some regions, such as the North East, will improve on their 2020–2025 performance while still lagging the UK average.

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Weakened regional labour markets as energy costs bite

The energy shock is feeding through to a broad-based labour market slowdown. Employment is expected to decline across all regions and most major cities in 2026 as firms respond to weaker demand and higher costs. The Middle East will hit the economy and leave it risking recession in the second half of 2026. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.

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Spring 2026 forecast: Another supply shock hits

The Middle East will hit the economy and leave it risking recession in the second half of 2026. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2026 and 0.9% in 2027.

April 2026

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About Us: Meet Our Team

The ITEM Club brings together leading economists, forecasters, and advisers with deep expertise across macroeconomic analysis, policy evaluation, and economic modelling. Our team combines decades of experience from central banks, government departments, and financial institutions.

Chief Economic Adviser

Matt Swannell

Chief Economic Adviser to the ITEM Club

Matt brings over two decades of experience in economic forecasting and policy analysis. Prior to joining Oxford Economics, he held senior roles at the Bank of England, HM Treasury, and a leading global investment bank, where he advised on macroeconomic strategy and risk assessment.

15+ Years ExperienceEconomic forecasting & policy analysis
Government AdviserTrusted by corporate and government leaders

Economic Data Responses

Real-time analysis of key economic indicators

October 5 2026

UK activity slows as cost pressures bite

The UK S&P Global services PMI fell in September as elevated oil and gas prices raised business costs and hit demand. We expect a further slowdown in the coming months as the impact of higher energy prices continues to feed through.

October 5 2026

October 1 2026

UK manufacturing outlook remains modest

The UK S&P Global manufacturing PMI pointed to a sector that continues to enjoy modest growth, although respondents did point to headwinds from the Middle East conflict continuing to build.

September 30 2026

Healthy growth confirmed in Q2 but a slowdown looms

The latest UK quarterly national accounts confirmed a strong Q2, with GDP growth revised up by 0.1ppt to 0.5% q/q. Healthy growth in disposable incomes supported consumer spending in Q2.

September 30 2026

September 29 2026

The UK mortgage market is under pressure

High interest rates continue to weigh on UK mortgage approvals, causing net mortgage lending to remain modest. Following the Monetary Policy Committee’s hawkish pivot, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated into next year, depressing the housing market and mortgage lending.

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UK services activity ticks higher in October amid resilient demand

UK services activity expanded in October at a stronger pace than initially estimated as demand strengthened, according to a closely watched survey, easing concerns about the upcoming Budget’s effect on the economy. The S&P Global UK Services PMI Business Activity index rose to 52.3 in October, up from an earlier flash reading of 51.1 and well above the five-month low of 50.8 recorded in September. It was also higher than the 50 mark, which divides contraction from expansion.

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